China Unveils First Five-Year Plan to Boost Consumption, Targets $9 Trillion Retail Sales by 2030

The plan sets a target for annual retail sales of approximately 60 trillion yuan ($9 trillion) by 2030, implying a compound annual growth rate of about 3.7% from 2026 to 2030. This compares with roughly 5% annual growth recorded during the 2021-2025 period. The government pledged to raise household incomes and “significantly” increase the share of household consumption in the economy, which currently stands at around 40%.

The plan is part of China's first five-year strategy focused solely on consumption, signaling a policy shift toward strengthening domestic demand. The cabinet stated that consumption's role in driving economic growth will be further strengthened, and it aims for a steady increase in per capita spending on services as a proportion of total household outlays.

Services spending has outpaced goods consumption growth in recent years but still lags far behind developed economies. In 2025, per capita services consumption accounted for 46.1% of total consumption, well below the roughly 70% seen in the United States.

To support consumption, the plan calls for stronger tourism-related spending, an expansion of visa-free entry to more countries, and increased direct international flights to Europe, the U.S., and countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. Some government economists have urged long-promised income and welfare reforms as the economy grapples with a deepening imbalance between strong industrial output—buoyed by exports—and weak domestic consumption.